The automotive industry traditionally has been one of the semiconductor industry's best customers. Currently, six percent of the global semiconductor production ends up in a car. At the electronica automotive congress in Munich, Strategy Analytics Automotive Electronics Director Ian Riches predicted that there is much more to come: By 2017, this percentage will more than triple to 20 percent of the world's chips, diodes and transistors production volume.

Riches identified powertrain and safety as the most powerful demand drivers. The market researcher also compiled what he called the ten fastest growing applications for automotive semiconductors. They are electric powertrain, lane departure warning, e-call telematics, night vision, drowsiness monitor, collision warning, alternator regulators, hybrid electric powertrain, power seats, and passive keyless entry. In other words, eight of this top ten applications belong to the abovementioned fields of powertrain and safety.

Riches also predicted rather impressing growth rates for hybrid electric vehicles and electric vehicles production: For the time between 2010 and 2015, electric vehicle production will maintain an average growth rate of 104 percent per year. HEV production will grow at a less spectacular but still very healthy rate of 23 percent per year. Nevertheless, market participants could be excited about the high growth rates, Riches said, but they also should be realistic about the volumes: By 2015, HEVs will account for only 5 percent of the world's light vehicle – and for all-electric vehicles this figure is merely 1 percent.

For the semiconductor industry, these figures translate into either high growth or high volume, not both of them. For the biggest part of the industry, that is. The sweet spot guaranteeing high growth and high volume is the power train; semiconductor vendors supplying this market can enjoy both aspects, Riches said. In other words, manufacturers of power devices are rather well off: The market for semiconductors for HEV/EVs will have a volume of about $1.5 billion in 2017 (2009: $0.4 billion), and power semiconductors account for 75 to 80 percent of this market.

At the same time, the HEV/EV powertrain market segment will greatly diversify over the period in question. Today, the three largest OEM groups – Toyota, Honda, and Renault-Nissan - account for 60 percent of the HEV/EV powertrain semiconductor demand. By 2015, their share will shrink to 30 percent, and other players will gain traction. Volkswagen will get 12 percent market share, ranking second behind market leader Toyota (14 percent). General Motors will rank third with 10 percent; Renault-Nissan fourth with 9 percent, followed by Honda, Hyundai and Ford with 7 percent each.