None of the most promising technologies currently available can by itself reduce the transport sector's CO2 emissions to meet global targets. For this reason, a combination of technologies is expected. These are findings of a new study by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants entitled "Truck Powertrain 2020 – Mastering the CO2 challenge". The study focuses on and analyzes the development of CO2 emission reduction technologies in the different truck segments.

"Reduced oil reserves, rising fuel prices and an increased political and public awareness of environmental issues all make it necessary to immediately develop alternative powertrain technologies. Already today, OEMs need to work closely with the government to realistically be able to meet ambitious targets," says Norbert Dressler, Partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and expert in alternative truck powertrain technologies. In another ten years, the technological landscape will be very different, although diesel will still remain dominant. A wide range of potential powertrain technologies is available to cope with the ambitious emission targets that the government is expected to set, but not all technologies will reach the stage of mass production. External parameters such as lobbying, technological development in other industries and the smart use of collaborations and alliances will determine the future technology mix within the commercial vehicle industry.

Medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles are responsible for over 20% of the transport sector's carbon emissions and therefore play a significant role. Developing CO2 emission technologies for trucks is proving to be particularly challenging, and technological advances will have a different focus compared to, say, passenger cars. The emission targets currently under discussion can therefore be reached only through a reasonable combination of actions. Hence, emissions will be cut not just by using new powertrain technologies, but to a large extent also from vehicle improvements such as better aerodynamics and overall vehicle weight reduction.

None of the most promising technologies currently available can sufficiently reduce new vehicle CO2 emissions before 2020 – at least, not in isolation. A combination of technologies is therefore to be expected. According to the study, vehicle improvements can also significantly reduce CO2 emissions, with investment return in less than three years. These include aerodynamic features such as cab spoilers, side skirts, base flaps and low rolling resistance tires. Depending on the vehicle segment and application, fuel consumption can be cut by up to around 15%. Many of these features are already available on the market, while others are still awaiting approval or are approved only in certain regions.

Regarding powertrain improvements, technologies in triad markets are currently extensively optimized. Further improvements are possible, but only up to 5%. Powertrains in BRIC markets will benefit heavily from proven technologies by 2020. In fact, introducing triad powertrain technologies can reduce vehicle fleet CO2 emissions by 10-20% compared to 2007 emission levels. Hybrids still need some development time to further reduce system costs and achieve promised CO2 emission reductions. But decreasing system prices, in conjunction with increasing volumes and increasing diesel prices, will ensure profitability in the medium term. Consequently, they are expected to be introduced into several segments by 2020.

According to the study, fuel cells still face major cost challenges that will hinder a broad introduction before 2020. It is expected that fuel cell technology will be relevant primarily for the city bus segment. Finally, alternative fuels will also play a significant role in reducing CO2 emissions, but diesel will remain the main energy source up through 2020, since the cost of alternative fuels will in general not be lower than diesel costs. Dressler concludes: "It is the task of both OEMs and suppliers to set the right circumstances early on and secure future long-term success within this industry."