According to the study, the most pronounced growth segments are powertrain and electronics. The market volume is expected to rise from 500 billion euros (about USD 661 billion) in 2008 to 660 billion euros in 2020. While growth in the traditional home geographies of the automotive industry – Europe, Japan and the USA, referred to as “the triad” by the study - will remain essentially flat, the Chinese market will sport strong growth, the experts say.

Key growth drivers will be, no surprise, pressure to reduce carbon dioxide emissions- mainly by reducing fuel consumption -, rising safety standards, and greater comfort expectations. Also the strong demand for low-price automobiles will contribute to the rising component demand. All these growth drivers combined will lead to increased electronics content in the cars, and in particular in the powertrain where alternative technologies are expected to gain traction.

Nevertheless, Roland Berger expert Wolfgang Bernhard pointed out that there is a wide gap between winners and losers. And this gap will be most pronounced in the powertrain segment. According to Bernhard, the demand for power electronics, electric drive systems and high-voltage batteries will experience double-digit growth, generating business opportunities even for new players in the industry. Purely mechanical component supplies however will get under pressure from two sides: While the massive cost-cutting pressure will continue to hit them, they face the threat of being replaced by more sophisticated mechatronic solutions.

Similar trends will affect the chassis segment, and here particularly the safety functions. Active safety systems will drive innovation. According to the study, there is a strong trend towards more sophisticated electronic systems while purely mechanical components will increasingly be displaced by mechatronic ones.

In the infotainment segment, the study expects the market focus to move from hardware and software to services, eventually changing the predominant business model. Against this background, in particular navigation system manufacturers will face tough challenges. “Especially in the volume market, free services delivered on mobile platforms are calling into question the business model followed by suppliers”, expert Marcus Berret said. He sees a trend towards splitting up systems which means that functionality is moved out of the vehicle and into the realm of telecommunications. There, however, the “freebie mentality” associated to internet usage, is a factor that could limit the chances for profitable business. An additional challenge for vendors active in this segment is that new suppliers from Asia are about to enter the automotive business and compete with established providers.